February retail sales slow

UK retail sales rose by 0.1 per cent on a like-for-like basis from February 2015, when they had increased 0.2 per cent from the preceding year.

On a total basis, sales were up 1.1 per cent, against a 1.7 per cent rise in February 2015. After January’s acceleration, February’s slowdown puts the three-month average growth in line with the 12-month average at 1.8 per cent.
Adjusted for the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index deflation of 2.0 per cent, total growth was 3.1 per cent in February against 3.7 per cent and 3.6 per cent for the 3-month and 12-month averages respectively.
February growth was mostly driven by Furniture and Home Accessories again while Food, Clothing and Footwear experienced declines on a like-for-like basis.
Online sales of Non-Food products grew 10.7 per cent in February versus a year earlier, when they had grown 8.3 per cent. The Non-Food online penetration rate remained above 20 per cent at 20.4 per cent, 1.5 percentage points above February 2015.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: "After a strong start to the year, February’s growth slowed to 1.1 per cent and 0.1 per cent on a like-for-like basis. This fell below the three-month and the twelve-month total averages, both in line at 1.8 per cent.

"February’s slowdown was noticeable across all product categories bar Stationery and Health & Beauty, as Valentine’s Day provided a welcome growth spurt for those retailers well prepared for the occasion. The fashion categories struggled while some growth was noted in books and vision. Competition remained strong in the grocery sector, while consumers proved willing to spend money on large ticket items, namely furniture, driving the month’s performance. 

"This slow growth reflects the increasing pressure the industry is under, as highlighted in our recent Retail 2020 report. With the Budget due this month, we encourage the Government to address the cumulative burden that retailers face; enabling growth and protecting jobs and communities."

KPMG UK retail head David McCorquodale said: "With the implementation of the National Living Wage only weeks away, all the focus is on promotional activity to drive sales and on productivity to protect margins.  With fashion design choices made and an early Easter this year, clothing retailers will be hoping for March sunshine to launch the new season’s wares."

Meanwhile, Barclaycard figures show consumer spending grew by 3.3 per cent in February, the second consecutive monthly slowdown since year-on-year growth reached a peak of 4.0 per cent in December 2015, as shoppers started to show signs of more cautious behaviour in response to an uncertain economic outlook.


The latest data from Barclaycard, which processes nearly half of all credit and debit card transactions in the UK, found that overall growth in February was predominantly driven by spending on experiences. Restaurants (up 13.8 per cent), pubs (12.8 per cent) and hotels (7.5 per cent) all saw an increase in spending as couples took advantage of Valentine’s Day falling on a Sunday to celebrate with meals out and weekend breaks.

However, uncertainty around the economic environment hit consumers’ confidence and led them to rein back their spending overall. Barclaycard research shows that consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since Q3 2014, with confidence dropping sharply over the last three months. Recent stock market turmoil, uncertainty around Britain's EU membership and lower domestic growth forecasts are all affecting the consumer outlook.


Just over half of consumers (54 per cent) now say they feel confident in their household finances, a significant drop from the seven-in-ten (71 per cent) who said the same in December 2015. Across the same time period there has also been a sharp decline in confidence in job security (from 52 per cent to 39 per cent) and in the UK economy, which has fallen from 45 per cent to 36 per cent.


As a result, consumers are spending carefully on the experiences they won’t do without and holding back in other areas. This may be responsible for a drop in retail spending in February – clothing sales recorded a disappointing year-on-year rise of just 2.0 per cent, significantly down from January (6.7 per cent) when consumers took advantage of the sales period to stock up on fashion items. Spending in both electronic stores and garden centres fell -0.7 per cent and -1.3 per cent respectively. Only department stores and discount stores, which saw rises of 9.0 per cent and 10.1 per cent respectively, bucked the trend.


Overall spending on the high-street fell by -0.2 per cent whilst online spending rose 15.5 per cent.


The spending patterns that emerged last month look set to continue as Barclaycard research suggests that shoppers plan to spend on experiences in the month ahead. Travel will continue to be a bright spot, as one in five (21 per cent) say they’ll spend more on holidays, and one in ten (13 per cent) will spend more on entertainment and days out.


Paul Lockstone, managing director at Barclaycard, said: "February spend growth, while still robust at 3.3 per cent, continued the downward trajectory we’ve seen over the past few months as consumers reacted to uncertainty in the economy. The February half-term and the Valentine’s weekend provided bright spots, with spending on days out and trips away holding up well. This suggests shoppers are budgeting carefully so they can spend on their ‘must-have’ experiences.

"After a strong run in the second half of 2015 it seems that consumer confidence has finally caught up with the wider economic news. On-going worries over the economy and uncertainty around the UK’s EU membership may cause shoppers to continue to take a more cautious approach to spending over the coming months."

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