Driven by growth in robotic and ride-on models, lawnmowers performed well in 2015 with current value growth of three per cent, as did gardening power tools. By 2020, 12 per cent of expenditure on lawnmowers will go to robotic models, up from 10 per cent in 2015.
The market researcher forecasts gardening to show growth at a one per cent compound annual growth rate at constant 2015 prices over the period 2015-20, reaching sales of £4.2bn in 2020.
Private labels such as B&Q's Verve range performed very well in 2015, gaining one per cent in value share over the previous year to hold 18 per cent. Growth in 2015 was fuelled by the entry of new cost-conscious gardeners in their 20s and 30s as well as by a widening range. Private label notably gained a percentage point in value share of gardening hand tools in 2015, rising to 35 per cent.
Euromonitor predicts price competition among manufacturers and a decline in unit prices due to the growing impact of internet retailing. Retailers are expected to reduce prices and raise promotional activity to stay competitive in an increasingly challenging environment.
Sander den Boer of Euromonitor International said: "Although the long-term implications of the Brexit vote are unclear, the decision to leave the EU is expected to have a few short-term effects on the UK gardening market. The vote quickly led to a sharp slowdown in the housing market. Combined with a drop in consumer confidence, this is likely to cause a volume sales decline in big ticket items, such as lawn mowers and gardening power tools. Nonetheless, as consumers are now more likely to postpone extensive garden renovations, they may start using some products more, such as pest control and herbicides, to keep their garden in a well-maintained state.
"The currency drop of the pound against the euro and the dollar that was recorded directly after the Leave vote is likely to lead to a short term increase in price. Sales in categories such as gardening tools, lawnmowers and horticulture are expected to register a decline as a result of the exchange rate fluctuation. This is especially likely for those products that are manufactured or grown abroad, giving British brands a competitive advantage.
"As the UK will not leave the EU for at least another two years, trade is unlikely to be directly impacted in the short term. The uncertainty that follows potentially protracted negotiations between the EU and the UK, however, may dampen trade as companies postpone investment decisions until after an agreement has been reached. This is likely to lead to further price increases on the UK gardening market."