HTA and Garden Centre Association figures suggest average sales increases of 10 per cent after the main plant-selling season - but there is a sting in the tail for centre owners who, along with consultants, expect Christmas to be tough because of the recession.

Millbrook Garden Company's new managing director Tammy Woodhouse said: "We've had a really good 2009. The weather has been on our side."

Woodhouse said huge growth in grow-your-own products boosted sales and the centre was 15 per cent up on the first six months of 2008. But she added that Christmas "will be challenging".

Gloucestershire-based Fosseway Garden Centre owner Tim Goodwin said his centre was up 20 per cent this year, with grow-your-own "a big success" and furniture and barbecues "a big hit".

He added: "We were worried at the start of the year and thought we might have to make redundancies, but we've just taken another person on."

Berkshire-based Hare Hatch Sheeplands operations director Andy Dicks said: "Everything I have read talks about a grow-your-own and core-gardening boom and I don't think we're any different."

Buckingham Nurseries & Garden Centre plant buyer Chris Day said his centre was 11 per cent up but added: "The problem is that Christmas buying is done and dusted.

"Here, we keep Christmas low key. But I'm starting to look for Christmas cyclamens and poinsettias in the UK because they are better value."

Garden writer Peter Seabrook said: "I expect it to get a great deal more difficult in the next 12 months and I can't see Christmas being easy. Garden centres have had a good spring for reasons including weather and grow-your-own. But Christmas is not weather-related.

"Your approach should be very cautious, keeping staff costs, overheads and buying tight. Wages are frozen at best and fixed costs are going up.

"The safe bet would be to stock core gardening and squeeze every plant sale you can out. Use unsold bulbs to make Christmas gifts and attract people in with Christmas trees and pot plants, and stay well clear of overstocking with decorations."

Consultant Andy Campbell said: "Six months ago there was a huge amount of caution. But spending since then has given people more liquidity and confidence. Short-term, over the next six months, people are cautiously optimistic."

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