There has been a very horticultural air to the pundits' descriptions of the current state of the economy. Everyone is talking about "green shoots".

Depending on who is talking, either those shoots are the beginning of a turnaround that is in the process of growing, or those same shoots are just waiting to be stamped back into the ground by the next round of financial surprises.

In either case, however, all parties seem to have come to an agreement that we have reached a potential bottom of the cycle. Unemployment continues to grow - if more slowly - but loans to homeowners and small businesses are starting to increase, even more slowly.

There is even agreement that this will not be a "V-shaped" recovery, ie one that shoots up as directly and quickly as it fell down. It will be "U-shaped", with a long plateau on the low end and a slow upturn when growth starts again.

And, while we're here, let's talk about when all of this is supposed to be visible to the normal person's eye (in contrast to the eye of the economists only, many of whom readily admit that they don't have a "normal" view of the world).

If the talking heads are correct, we should see an upturn in the market that sticks (because the most recent upturn is expected to take a fall) sometime toward the end of this year or early next.

Unemployment - which has an impact on retail sales and the Government's income from taxes - will lag, with a turnaround only beginning to be visible in the first half of next year. Probably more toward the middle.

OK. That's the general prediction. The question now is: what are you supposed to do for the next year while the rest of the economic world is figuring itself out?

The answer: make sure you have a plan that is tied to the short-term (three to six months), medium-term (six to 12 months) and long-term (one year plus) information horizons that are given to you.

Then, be ready to shift and change at any moment - because the one thing we know is that we don't actually know if any of the above is going to play out the way the "experts" want us to believe.

Building on the ambiguity

The good news is that there really is a difference between what was and what is. The difference is that, at the start of this down-cycle, no one had any idea what to expect. The reason for that was that no one expected it to happen at all. From that point forward, everyone - government, business and individuals - was flying blind. All anyone knew was that the financial downturn was going to be bad - and they were correct.

Now we know what this down-cycle looks like. We know which sectors are being hardest hit and which are making their way through.

For all the gloom attached to the garden retail sector in the run-up, the industry did what it always does in a downturn. It held strong and, in many cases, grew. Landscapers, too, are benefiting from the financial crisis as people opt to improve their current properties instead of buying new ones.

Parks are a different story altogether. From Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew to your local green space, the challenge is government funding. In a downturn like this one, as important as this part of the sector is to the human psyche, local and national governments simply see it as an expense. They don't understand its importance - and so they don't fund it as it deserves.

On the edibles side, the problem is with the contracts. Unfortunately, because the supply chain is such that prices are set well in advance when the deals are done, even though the sales are good - to and from the retailers - the profits are not. In some cases, growers are looking at getting out of markets altogether - even as their customers succeed with record profits.

Then, of course, you have the local government's need for tax income and how that is playing out with new red tape and associated expenses. For all that it could be predicted, it still doesn't make it easy - particularly in this market environment.

So now we know - and that's the most important piece of information altogether. It's easier to live with ambiguity than it is to live with no information at all.

Each segment of the sector has seen how the current cycle has affected its funding and performance. While that is no guarantee of how things will remain, at the very least, there is room for some more solid planning than was the case even as little as six months ago.

Better yet, we now have some idea of what's happening next - at least in some arenas - and that makes it easier to plan ahead.

Who determines what's next?

To work the upturn - even during the plateau - you have to be aware of all the drivers that impact on the next stages.

About those that play out in the immediate to mid-term, there may not be much you can do - but by keeping them in mind, you can be ready to act once you have more information. For long-term drivers, the onus is on you to take whatever steps you can to manipulate their results to go in the direction you prefer.

The following is just a slice of the big hitters that are on the radar. This week's elections will have an impact - both locally and nationally - on the sector. Whether it is the makeup of your local council or of the MEPs making their way to Brussels, the industry will be affected. Once we know what the final results are, we'll know how to plan.

Summer is coming. Grow-your-own and DIY will continue to thrive and those people who are (or are not) doing their landscaping will be giving serious consideration to patio furniture - not least because the Met says this summer will be a sizzler. Make sure you've got access to plenty of grills.

The Government will continue its funding of technology research. There is no better time to start thinking of your industry as the next Silicon Valley. The more and further you get away from "Defra-thinking", the better. No matter how well intentioned, horticulture as part of Defra won't be sexy. It's time to make it so by looking at the forward-thinking projects and technologies that will get the Government's attention - from some other department. Because if you can make the case that you're creating jobs and opportunities - now and for the future - you've got a look-in. Make the effort.

And, because there is a general election looming within a year, it's time to start looking at how the next government will impact on your local area as well as your sector as a whole. Push the politicians to find out their stance on agriculture and horticulture. Don't let them mealy-mouth their way around committing to a position. You need to identify who will best serve your needs - and make it clear that you'll help get the vote behind them. Then do it. Just like those "green shoots", "grass roots" are more important to politicians now than ever before.

Taking your market

As has been said before - and will continue to be said long after this recession is over - downturns are Darwinian in nature. Only the strong survive. The way they do so is by evolving and adapting. This one - because of its size, scope and length - is particularly Darwinian. But if you play it right, it remains a perfect time for taking your organisation to new heights of success.

So far, we've seen losses and businesses that no one thought would ever disappear either go into administration or quickly sell themselves to the highest bidder. Depending on where you are on the cash war-chest scale, there remain opportunities for expansion that no one likes, but everyone who understands downturns waits for.

We've also seen different types of expansion - some through the addition of new products and services, others by consolidation. In both cases, the players saw the opportunities and grabbed them. Downturns create holes in the market. Those holes need to be filled, so keep your eye out for what is not being provided and how your organisation can make that difference.

There are two interesting examples - both by major players - of how those holes get filled that are well worth watching: Wyevale's expansion into landscaping and Tesco's expansion into banking.

You may say, sure, Wyevale. That's in the industry. But Tesco? What does banking have to do with horticulture - unless it's willing to start giving small business loans?

The core component necessary to take a market is your thinking process. That's why your planning process is key. By knowing where you're going and your current status toward getting there, you'll not only be open to new opportunities, you'll be able to see and act on situations that you would otherwise miss.

In looking at these two market entries, you see the thinking and planning process in action. The outcome is their execution and delivery. But their success comes from all the upfront work that was completed well in advance of going public that prepared them to make their moves.

First Wyevale. Over the past year or so we've seen the expansion. It has been buying up garden retail centres in locations that suit its purposes. Moreover, it has created a Wyevale look. There is a consistency that is being built into its centres so that, no matter which Wyevale location a customer visits, there is a familiarity - which leads to comfort - with the layout and the shopping experience.

That takes planning and forethought - from the geographic locations (including how not to cannibalise your own market by putting too many centres too close together) to the physical layout and design of the centres to the training of the employees.

But it is the customisation of the sites that makes the difference. It is not by chance that Wyevale launches eight landscape and fencing centres. Eight wasn't a number the company picked out of the air.

Just as you will see location-specific buying decisions for products on a by-centre basis, so, too, were the decisions on where to pilot the landscaping service made by research and forethought. A market exists in those geographic areas that Wyevale is convinced it can serve better than anyone currently in the area or in an area that is simply underserved.

To get to those decisions, a lot of planning and discussion was required. The strategy was all one of a piece: expand. But expansion is not only determined by sheer site numbers. It is also defined as the ability to serve more and different customers in the locations that are currently yours.

Which neatly takes us to Tesco Banking. Thirty new banks will be established in existing Tesco locations throughout the country by the end of this year.

This is a case where the company moved at exactly the right time to use its trusted brand name to provide a service that has been battered in the larger market by the downturn itself.

Moreover, the firm is tying its bank to the loyalty card system so there are multiple benefits for being a banking customer beyond its promise of better interest rates.

Just watch. A discount at Dobbies will soon appear as a benefit.

It's all about how to add value - both to the customer experience and to your bottom line. To get there, look beyond the green shoots to the horizon and use the downturn to create success.