There is a popular perception that potato growers thrive in a recession. According to conventional wisdom, in hard times people dispense with the wild rice and organic lamb and opt for more humble fare such as pies and mash.

While this might draw a simplistic picture, there does seem to be a measure of truth in it. Potato growers are relatively confident about the future, although there are some potential problems that threaten the industry.

Latest figures from the Potato Council show that the demand for good-quality potatoes remains high, although there are plenty of poorer-grade potatoes around, which is depressing the lower end of the market. Top-quality new potatoes are going for anything up to £1,150 per tonne. Good-quality main-crop potatoes are realising anything up to £200 per tonne.

However, potatoes that are only suitable for value packs can fetch as little as £50. The GB Average Weekly Price, which is the figure that most growers look at, is currently £131 per tonne. All of which means that the industry is - if not exactly flush with money - at least keeping its head above water.

Adam Sykes helps run J Sykes & Sons, which supplies processing potatoes to McCains. He explains: "Prices are not wonderful, but they're not disastrous. I would have hoped it would be a bit higher."

According to Greenvale director and potato grower Tony Bambridge, potato processors - primarily the chip and crisp manufacturers - have negotiated reasonable long-term contracts with producers. However, sellers of fresh potatoes have not been so lucky. "There is a price war between supermarkets, and this has put pressure on potato producers to reduce prices," he says.

Tim Papworth is a director of F Papworth and is on the board of the Potato Council. His firm grows a variety of products. He sells washed potatoes for crisps "all on contracts signed last year" and also supplies salad potatoes to supermarkets. According to Papworth, there has been a slight decline in the market for the more specialised and expensive products. "There will be salad and new crop potatoes," he says. "But they might not get such a premium as they did last year."

Long-term thinking

There is some evidence that people may be buying potatoes as a cheap food to get them through the current economic recession. Although this may ensure that potato sales remain relatively high, it could create long-term problems.

People might associate the potato with poverty and deprivation, rather than seeing it as a premium product. The danger is that when people start to feel more prosperous, they will abandon the potato in favour of more luxurious alternatives.

Dr Rob Clayton, head of communications at the Potato Council, explains: "We've got to refocus on the long term. Otherwise we'll be badly placed when we come out of the recession.

"We've spent 20 years turning the potato from a simple commodity into something that is noble and versatile. If we start becoming obsessed with its cheap price, this would be a backwards step," Clayton adds.

The weather this year has been relatively kind to growers, who are reporting that the unusually dry conditions have made it easy to plant seed potatoes. But if the dry weather continues, it could cause problems for this year's main-crop potatoes.

"The dry weather bodes well for a good harvest, but we now need rain. If we don't get it, things might not be quite so buoyant," says Papworth.

Growers point out that the East of England - particularly Norfolk - has had relatively little rain over the past few months. According to Papworth, some growers are already irrigating their crops. Unless there is substantial rainfall, some water abstraction licences may be revoked.

Other parts of the country have been more fortunate. In Yorkshire, where there has been a reasonable quantity of rain, some growers are saying that the growing season has got off to an almost perfect start.

Pests

The other major problem has been the various potato pests. As always, potato blight is a threat. In recent years, one particular variety of blight - Blue 13 - has had a particularly severe impact. Commercial products can still be used to target blight, but these are increasingly coming under threat from EU regulations: most particularly from the EU water regulations, which mean that the minerals normally used to control blight can only be used very sparingly to avoid run-off.

The threat of PCN

A serious menace - particularly in the south of Britain - has been potato cyst nematode (PCN), which reduces crop volume. Growers are increasingly looking for biological control methods to fight these problems.

Clayton suggests that the future control of PCN may rely heavily on "biofumigation" techniques, in which crops are specially planted to combat the pest.

Some varieties of brassicas, for example, can be planted immediately after the potatoes have been lifted. Before the new potato crop is due to be planted, the brassicas are ploughed into the ground. Although this system doesn't actually produce a brassica crop, it allows growers to meet EU requirements for green cover. But, more importantly, chemicals in the brassicas deter PCN.

Graham Nichols runs a firm in Gloucestershire producing seed potatoes and is on the board of the Potato Council. He explains that PCN could have a dire impact on the seed potato trade: "If we're growing seed potatoes, the EU won't allow us to use land that has PCN. They're making the tests more stringent. It is something that the Potato Council is currently discussing with the EU."

The Scottish Crop Research Institute (SCRI) is also looking at ways of fighting pests. SCRI has found that some varieties of potato have high levels of resistance to PCN. Vales Everest, a processing potato, has proved particularly useful. Vales Sovereign, a new ware potato, has also a degree of resistance.

However, much of the effort has gone into long-term research. Researchers are looking at wild potatoes from South America to see if these have more natural resistance. Dr Findlay Dale says this is not likely to have any immediate benefits: "This is long-term research. I don't think we'll see any commercial results for 10 years."

He suggests that the Phureja potato - currently being marketed as Mayan Gold - could be a model for the future. The Phureja has yellow flesh, an interesting flavour and higher-than-average resistance to some pests.

Dale suggests other varieties of South American native potatoes could be developed for the British market.

This could be particularly important as some potatoes, which currently exhibit resistance to blight, are starting to lose their resistance as the forms of blight evolve.

Stable footing

The potato industry seems to be on slightly more stable footing than in previous years. Input costs have stablised. The cost of fuel has fallen markedly.

The cost of fertiliser has also fallen, although Sykes points out that, for his firm, it is still 50 per cent higher than in previous years. "This year's is the most expensive crop that we've ever produced," he says.

Growers are certainly very conscious of costs. According to the Potato Council, an increasing number of growers are employing independent consultants to find ways of making efficiency savings. The Potato Council predicts that some of its 3,000 levy-payers will amalgamate to further reduce costs.

The economic downturn has brought some benefits. Because of the recession, it is relatively easy to get labour. Papworth has found that some workers who had left the industry to go into construction are now returning to agriculture and asking for their old jobs back. The fall of the pound against the euro has also had a positive impact. It means, for example, that supermarkets and processors are less likely to go to Germany or Holland in search of cheap products.

The one low point is that some traders have recently been suffering problems with cashflow. This has meant that, in some cases, growers have struggled to get payment for their crops. According to Papworth, there are great concerns with credit control.

"Growers are wary about conducting business in places where credit isn't secure," he says.

As for the future, the industry is relatively optimistic. The Potato Council points to the success of its various Grow a Potato competitions, which have spread to around 11,000 schools. Such initiatives have increased public interest in the simple spud.

And there are some new varieties of potato in the pipeline. The SCRI, for example, is looking at potatoes with yellow and red flesh, although it has has to be stressed that none of these is likely to challenge the dominance of the traditional white-fleshed potato.

All of which seems to suggest that - barring natural disasters or extremes of weather - potato growers are set for a good year ahead.